Fuel Price Increase

Starting January 1, the price of petrol and diesel in Ireland is set to rise once again. This increase is driven by a mandate that requires a higher proportion of biofuels in petrol and diesel, adding 2 cents per litre to both fuels. This marks the fourth hike in motor fuel costs in just over a year, following previous increases in excise duty and carbon tax.

The December AA Ireland fuel price survey revealed that petrol prices have risen by 1 cent to an average of €1.74 per litre, while diesel prices have increased by 3 cents to €1.71 per litre. Factors contributing to these rising costs include increased shipping expenses due to unrest in the Middle East, higher refinery costs, and the weakening of the euro against the dollar.

In April, motorists experienced a 4-cent rise in petrol prices and a 3-cent rise in diesel prices as the government gradually restored the full rate of excise duty on motor fuels. This duty had been reduced in 2022 in response to the war in Ukraine, which had driven fuel prices to around €2 per litre. The full rate of excise duty was reinstated in August, adding further costs to fuel prices.

The latest increase in carbon tax, implemented in October, added 2.1 cents to a litre of petrol and 2.5 cents to diesel. Despite steady crude oil prices, the combination of these factors has led to a continuous rise in fuel costs for Irish motorists.

Fuel retailers and distributors have denied any profiteering, attributing the price hikes to external factors such as the cost of importing crude oil, which is priced in dollars. The euro’s depreciation against the dollar has made these imports more expensive. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains, further driving up costs.

Taxpayer Relief

On a more positive note, taxpayers in Ireland are set to benefit from several budget changes that take effect from January 1. These changes are designed to provide financial relief and boost disposable income for many individuals and families.

One of the key changes is the increase in the standard rate income tax band, which will rise by €1,500. This adjustment means that taxpayers will be able to earn more before being subjected to the higher tax rate, resulting in potential savings for many workers.

Additionally, the personal tax credit and the employee tax credit will both increase by €100. These credits directly reduce the amount of tax payable, providing further financial relief to taxpayers. The home carer tax credit will also see an increase of €100, benefiting families who care for dependents at home.

For social welfare recipients, there is good news as well. The weekly social welfare payments will increase by €12, providing additional support to those who rely on these payments. The fuel allowance, which helps low-income households with heating costs, will also see an increase.

The state pension will increase to €289.30 a week, a €12 hike. Finance Minister Jack Chambers stated that the changes to personal income taxes would support low- and middle-income earners. From today, the Government is increasing the main tax credits – the personal, employee, and earned income credits – by €125 each. This means the maximum employee tax credit for this year will be €2,000 for a single person.

There are also increases in the home carer tax credit and the single person child carer tax credit by €150 each, and increases in the incapacitated child tax credit and blind person’s tax credit by €300 each. The dependent relative tax credit will see an increase of €60.

If you are married or in a civil partnership and both of you have PAYE income, you are both entitled to claim the employee tax credit. There is also a €2,000 increase in what is called the standard rate cut-off point, meaning workers will be able to earn more before paying the top tax rate of 40%. The Universal Social Charge (USC) middle rate has been reduced from 4% to 3%, applying to income between €25,000 and €70,000. The entry threshold to the new 3% USC rate is being increased by €1,622 to €27,382, in line with the increase to the national minimum wage. This means that a full-time worker on the minimum wage will get an increase in their net take-home pay of €1,424 a year. A single person earning €20,000 or less this year will now be outside the income tax net.

Inflation in the eurozone has decreased significantly from a peak of 10.6% in October 2022 to around 2% now. This reduction in inflation has prompted the ECB to consider multiple rate cuts to ease the financial burden on borrowers. The ECB’s Governing Council is expected to announce these cuts in their upcoming meetings, with the first reduction anticipated in September and another likely in December. 

Tracker mortgage holders are set to benefit the most from these rate cuts. Approximately 180,000 customers in Ireland, representing about a quarter of the mortgage market, have tracker mortgages. These borrowers can expect two interest rate cuts within the next three months, including a special one-off reduction. The ECB’s technical adjustment to its interest rates, scheduled for September 18, will further align the refinance rate with the ECB deposit rate, resulting in a 0.35 percentage point reduction for tracker mortgage holders. 

The anticipated rate cuts are expected to bring substantial financial relief to homeowners. Each 0.25 percentage point reduction in the ECB refinancing rate translates to a saving of approximately €13 per month for every €100,000 outstanding on a mortgage over a 15-year term. This means that homeowners with tracker mortgages could see their annual repayments decrease by around €156 for every 0.25 percentage point cut. 

The ECB’s decision to cut rates is influenced by recent inflation data from major eurozone economies, including Germany, Spain, and Ireland, which indicate a slowdown in price increases. This trend has led financial markets to price in further rate cuts, with analysts from Investec predicting a 0.25 percentage point cut next month and another in December. Additionally, Investec forecasts a full percentage point of cuts next year, further easing the financial strain on borrowers.